Tennis Oct 26

[syddiggers]

To my boys Hope1 and MadCapper, I am finally going to get off the fence, the splinters are killing me.

Tonight I have two strong plays that both happen to be in Basel. I absolutely love SRICHAPHAN ( -167@Pinny )against Chela and im all over HENMAN ( -137@Pinny ) againsdt Wawrinka. I think both prices are great about two very classy players who are up against players that arent playing on a preferred surface.

They are 1-1 head to head with Chela's victory coming on cvlay, a surface which Srichaphan is absolute terrible at. Srichy is 34-14 on carpet and has been playing pretty well since the US Open, while Chela doesnt do a lot when not on the dirt and is 3-7 on carpet. I think this line should be a lot higher than it is and would take anywhere up to -200 on Srichy, and think he should be up in the -250 range.

Henman has been playing great tennis since the US Open and has only lost 3 matches ( Federer, Nalbandian and Srichy ) and has a clear class edge over Wawrinka. The one thing that Wawa has in his favour is he is playing at home, but Henman has a huge class edge, and a current form edge. Henman is 47-16 on carpet while Wawa prefers the slower courts and is 7-9 on carpet. Im quite chocked that we are getting such a great price on Henman and unless he is carrying an injury that no one knows about, he should be a lot shorter and I would have him much closer to -200 than -130..

Good luck guys, and I look forward to hearing from you in the morning.

 

[Duce]

syddiggers,I have been trying to find a site that show career records for players on different surfaces with no luck and it looks you you seem to know one.If I my ask where do you get your info?

 

[syddiggers]

syddiggers,I have been trying to find a site that show career records for players on different surfaces with no luck and it looks you you seem to know one.If I my ask where do you get your info?

Hi Duce, I could tell you but I would have to kill you. I found an amazing site a couple of years ago and I would highly recommend it to everyone. It basically tells you everything about a player ( both ATP and WTA ) except what they had for breakfast that day. Its a Russian website and it is

www.oncourt.info

Its a paysite but for what you get it is well worth it. You can pay 39 Euro ( close to US$50 ) for a one year subscription, or a crazy 79 Euro ( approx $US90 ) for a lifetime subscription.

You download the program onto your computer and away you go. It gives you all you need to know about any male or female player you could wish for, and it also does doubles if youre feeling desperate. Ive used the site for over two years now and never had a problem with it. It also updates all results every day, so you dont have to factor in any matches or results that might have eben played in the previous couple of days that a lot of programs might miss.

If you have any ore questions about the site then dont hesitate to ask me. Cheers

 

[syddiggers]

Good money for Jiri Novak to beat David Ferrer in Basel today.

 

[Hope1]

nice writeups syd. Tough to argue with those plays. 5d STILL doesn't have the womens lines up, how pathetic.

one play for me, certainly risky given fatigue may play a role, but i'll bite. Taking F Gonzalez (CHI) over M Fish (USA). I'm happy Mardy is back from that rather serious wrist injury that sidelined him for quite some time--he is having a fine year. 27-17 on ATP, 18-3 on Challengers. However, he has not beatin' a top10 player in nearly 3 yrs!!!!! Fish is ALL serve--if its on, he has a chance today, if not Gonzo will likely take him in straights, just as he recently did at Cinci in Aug '06. My concern in this play , as previously stated, is possible fatigue for Gonzo: he has played a lot of matches of late and with Fed in the field he aint winning here- so I even question what he is doing here--why not take the week off, go fresh into TMS Paris (pts much higher than Basel) to try to qualify for SHanghui? He publically stated he was tired after the beatign Fed gave him on SUnday. Having said that, he also has stated SHanghui is a goal hence, i 'hope' he will give it his all, motivation to the max......

anyway line is ridiculously below 165 so i'm in....

have a good day all

 

[syddiggers]

There was some money for Fish today, but I think that was more due to the possible fatigue factor and injury rumour on Gonzalez part. I never like betting on players the week immediately after theyve had a strong tournament and combining that with there being another Masters Series event for me, there were plenty of factors against Gonzo for me, but not enough for me to bet on the Fishmonger. Also, from memory a poster last week mentioned Gonzo had a possible bad back when he tipped Berdych to beat him in last weeks semi final. As you said, Fish is all serve and therefore always a risky proposition. If his serve is on then you are always getting great value, but if its not then he has very little chance of winning.

P.S. There has been very strong money for Max Mirnyi to beat Andrei Pavel

 

[syddiggers]

Even more money coming for Max Mirnyi. Pavel must be injured. Mirnyi has firmed over 50 cents this morning and its all one way traffic.

 

[Hope1]

wish I didn't watch this live pt-by-pt on the Gonzo match. Just unreal. double break point 11th game of the 1st set, Gonzo doesn't convert. Fish wins in a tiebreak. 4 more break points in the second set, Fish holds them all. ucking: Fish has had break point in his favor just once the entire match (so far) 1-1, Gonzo 1-9.

 

[Hope1]

hey, whadda ya know, he converted on a break point!!!!!...off to the 3rd.

VAMOS GONZO!!!!

 

[syddiggers]

I hope ( no pun intended ) you get the chockies with Gonzo, and if so, I think he should be left alone for the rest of the week. Hes had this will be his second tough 3 setter and on top of a long week last week, and a tough week next week, he might be looking to put his feet up over the weekend. Get out whiles the goings good with Gonzo me thinks.

 

[Hope1]

yep, he was serving for the match and blew it, wow ucking: . Having not seen it live, don't know what's going on there. Kudos to Fish. Likely a tiebreak to finish this thing.

 

[Hope1]

Fish to serve...5-6

 

[Hope1]

tiebreak....what a hella of match. Gonzo is going on fumes right now, lol.

 

[Hope1]

surreal-- what a tiebreak, anybody follow that. Are you kidding me? A battle of wills and nerves. Such a fantastic sport, much better to be a part of that (playing it) than watching of course. 6 match points held off by Gonzo, THEN HE WINS!!!!!!

Fish has a TERRIBLE track record of choking, this will add to it, no doubt and hamper him in future tight matches. Gotta feel bad for Mardy.

thk you Gonzo.....2:45 yesterday on the court, 2:38 today. Never underestimate the heart of a champion

VAMOS

 

[gamerecognizegame]

man gonzalez has got some fight. great match. nice win for you

 

[gamerecognizegame]

who do you like in the srichipan match
i like paradorn but am not sure yet

 

[MadCapper]

so henman and novak?

 

[syddiggers]

I love Srich and I love Henman, both platonically of course, but that could change if they both win tonight.

Andrei Pavel must be injured as Mirnyi has firmed from -150 to -276 at Pinny throughout the evening. Now get this for a coincidence of the highest order. In a tournament last November, I remember Pavel opening as a -200 fave and blowing out to +200 dog in the first round. His opponent was that bad that Pavel still managed to win, and in the second round he blew substantially again and lost in 3 sets. This is uncanny that at almost the same time of eyar he is experiencing another dramatic drift in the betting.

Mirnyi is a player that books generally like to fade also, so for him to firm over a $1 points to Pavel being injured.

 

[MadCapper]

What about Danilidou +5.5 against Maria?

 

[syddiggers]

Nice work on Gonzo Hope. I bet the punters who took -10000 about Fish winning are feeling nice and sick now.

I would stay away from him in the next round though, he is a huge risk.